1. United States
2. Md.
3. Letter

Capitol Hill Casino: Political Betting, Insider Influence, and the “Academic” Loophole I am asking for congressional oversight and investigation into the continued operation and expansion of PredictIt, a real-money political betting platform operating steps from the U.S. Capitol under what many critics describe as an “academic research” loophole. PredictIt launched in 2014 through an agreement tied to Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, allowing it to operate under a CFTC “no-action” framework intended for limited academic research. However, the platform’s actual U.S. operations and infrastructure are connected to Aristotle, Inc., a longtime Washington, DC political data, campaign, PAC, lobbying, and voter-targeting company located on Pennsylvania Avenue near Capitol Hill. The platform allows people to place real-money bets on: • U.S. elections • control of Congress • cabinet resignations • presidential pardons • foreign elections • wars and geopolitical instability • executive branch actions and political crises This raises profound ethical and public trust concerns, particularly given the concentration of lobbying firms, political operatives, campaign infrastructure, advocacy groups, and government influence networks in the immediate surrounding area. The location itself is alarming. The same corridor includes: • major political and lobbying infrastructure • offices tied to Aristotle and campaign operations • properties reportedly acquired by the Conservative Partnership Institute (CPI) through a growing Pennsylvania Avenue real estate footprint known as “Patriot’s Row” • a nearby CREC-affiliated church attended by prominent political figures, appointees, and senior government officials, including the Secretary of Defense Within roughly a one-year period, LLCs connected to CPI reportedly purchased approximately nine Capitol Hill properties worth around $41 million in close proximity to one another. CPI is led by former Heritage Foundation president Jim DeMint and operates within a broader ecosystem of policy advocacy and political coordination. Even absent criminal conduct, the optics and ethical concerns are severe. Americans are now watching political outcomes become monetized assets while the same ecosystem influencing policy, elections, media narratives, and legislation operates within the same few blocks near Congress. If ordinary Americans traded financial assets based on nonpublic government information, insider trading concerns would immediately arise. Yet politically connected “prediction markets” continue operating under a disputed academic exemption despite repeated regulatory controversy and attempted shutdowns by the CFTC. Congress should immediately investigate: • whether these platforms are effectively skirting gambling and financial laws • whether politically connected individuals could benefit from privileged information • whether current ethics and disclosure laws are adequate • whether prediction markets tied to democratic outcomes undermine public trust and election integrity • the role of political influence networks surrounding these operations Democracy should not become a marketplace where insiders profit from instability, elections, war, and executive actions.