- United States
- Nev.
- Letter
Nevada Knows Rigged Bets When It Sees Them.
To: Rep. Amodei
From: A verified voter in Carson City, NV
April 10
Nevada knows more about regulating wagering than any state in the country. That expertise makes your voice essential right now.
Harvard researchers estimate $143 million in Polymarket profits have been made by traders who appear to have had insider knowledge of events before they happened. Fifty brand-new accounts bet on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before the President announced it. One account cleared $550,000 betting on the Iran strikes and Khamenei's removal before either occurred. Another made $400,000 on Maduro's capture hours before it happened.
Any Nevada casino operator would have flagged these patterns instantly. The Gaming Control Board would have been on it the same day. Yet prediction markets operate with essentially no insider trading enforcement, no KYC worth the name, and no regulator watching the floor.
This is not savvy trading. It is the exploitation of classified national security information for private profit. Someone with access to the most sensitive decisions in government is either leaking to gamblers or placing the bets themselves. As your Republican colleague Rep. Blake Moore said, we cannot allow adversaries to use prediction markets to anticipate American military operations.
Three asks:
1 Support the bipartisan House bill to ban prediction market contracts on military operations and acts of war.
2 Publicly call on the CFTC to investigate these trades, as Rep. Torres has formally requested.
3 Demand that any Polymarket or Kalshi approval to operate domestically include enforceable insider trading prohibitions with criminal penalties. Nevada built the gold standard for gaming integrity. Federal regulators should be held to at least that bar.
Donald Trump Jr.'s investment in Polymarket and paid advisory role with Kalshi make independent congressional oversight more urgent, not less.