1. United States
2. Texas
3. Letter

Elon Musk’s own generative AI tool, Grok 3, implicates the Trump/DOGE cuts to the US National Weather Service and NOAA in contributing to the dozens of Texas flood deaths on July 4: "The cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration significantly impaired the agency's ability to provide accurate and timely forecasts, which likely contributed to the severity of the Texas flood disaster on July 4, 2025. Here’s how these cuts played a role: Staffing Reductions: The NWS lost approximately 560–600 employees in early 2025 due to DOGE-initiated cuts, reducing its workforce by nearly 20%. Key positions, such as the warning coordination meteorologist at the Austin/San Antonio office and the meteorologist-in-charge at the San Angelo office, were vacant due to early retirement incentives. These roles are critical for coordinating with local emergency managers to ensure effective warning dissemination and response planning. The absence of these personnel likely hindered communication and coordination with local officials and camps like Camp Mystic, delaying critical evacuation efforts. Degraded Forecasting Capabilities: The cuts led to "degraded" forecasting services, as noted in an internal NWS document from April 2025. The NWS forecast for the Texas Hill Country predicted 3–6 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 4–8 inches in the Hill Country, significantly underestimating the actual 10–15 inches that fell. … This underestimation meant that local officials and camp organizers did not anticipate the catastrophic scale of the flooding, which saw the Guadalupe River rise over 20 feet in less than 2 hours. Warning Dissemination Issues: Although the NWS issued timely flood watches and warnings, including a flash flood emergency at 1:14 a.m. on July 4, the lack of key staff and a robust local warning system in Kerr County delayed public notifications. … Systemic Vulnerabilities: The cuts were part of a broader reduction in NOAA’s budget and operations, including the elimination of weather research labs and climate research programs, which further weakened the NWS’s ability to predict extreme weather events. … Conclusion: The consensus among critics, including Texas officials and experts, is that the understaffing and reduced resources likely contributed to the forecast’s underestimation of rainfall and the delayed local response. This was particularly critical in a region known for flash flooding, where timely and accurate warnings could have prompted earlier evacuations at Camp Mystic and other vulnerable areas, potentially reducing the death toll of at least 43, including 15 children. The staffing shortages and reduced forecasting capabilities likely amplified the challenges of preparing for and responding to the disaster, contributing to the tragic outcome." This is your state. You should read the full GROK analysis.