Trump has stalled America's economic growth. There is clear evidence that the trade war and tariffs initiated by the Trump administration have had a detrimental impact on economic growth. The disappointing 0.3% contraction in GDP for the first quarter of 2025, as outlined in the report, can be largely attributed to the negative effects of tariffs on trade. The trade balance subtracted a historic 4.8 percentage points from the growth rate due to businesses and consumers pulling forward spending to get ahead of rising costs from tariffs. This front-loading of economic activity bodes poorly for future quarters. While the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain reasonably solid for now, continuous policy chaos and escalating trade conflicts risk deeper, more lasting damage to growth and living standards. Reversing the trade war stance could help mitigate further economic harm, but a clear change in direction seems unlikely based on the administration's behavior.
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